Today, the Shanghai stock index repeatedly competed around 3,900 points, with an amplitude of nearly 3%. It was near the end of the broader market, and the rise of state-owned enterprises, power and real estate sectors pushed the index up. More than 2,500 shares rose in the two cities, and the daily limit exceeded 100. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.76% to 3954.56 points, with a turnover of 578.7 billion yuan; Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.12% to 13395.18 points, with a turnover of 496.1 billion yuan. On the disk, the sector has nearly risen across the board, with trade agents, public transportation, electricity and the Internet rising sharply.
UBS released the electronic components industry research report today, pointing out that the global LED chip supply and demand balance, the overcapacity situation has further eased, lighting has gradually become the most important application of the LED industry, which is good for China's LED industry chain, the future LED chip manufacturers are the most beneficial, individual stocks The most optimistic leader of Sanan Optoelectronics, followed by Huacan Optoelectronics and Ganzhao Optoelectronics.
First, UBS explained the concept of LED, a compound semiconductor device that converts electrical energy into visible or invisible light. The LED adopts electric field illumination, compared with the traditional light source, the LED light source has the characteristics of high luminous efficiency, long life, low energy consumption, small volume, no pollution, low radiation and the like. Since 2013, the penetration rate of LED lighting has increased rapidly, driving the demand for LED chips. Currently, LEDs are widely used in lighting, display, signal indication, automotive, mobile phones, television and other fields.
Since 2011, the global LED market has experienced a serious oversupply. This is mainly because the Chinese government promotes energy conservation and emission reduction. Local governments have successively introduced policies to encourage LED chip companies, including subsidies of RMB 8 million to 10 million yuan for MOCVD core equipment for LED chip production. At the same time, the demand for LED-backlit TVs has increased, which has led to the expansion of LED manufacturers in Taiwan and South Korea. This has led to a significant increase in global LED chip production capacity, exceeding demand growth.
In 2011, the global LED chip production capacity was about 44.2 million square inches, while the demand for the same period was only 33.97 million square inches, and the supply-demand ratio was as high as 130%. However, UBS's recent research shows that due to the limited new capacity of major LED chip manufacturers in the world and the continuous growth of demand, the global LED chip supply and demand ratio fell to 104% from 130% in 2011, and the overall balance is in the LED industry. Chain companies bring benefits.
Global LED production capacity is no longer surplus
Benefiting from the global phase-out of incandescent lamps and the declining price of LED lighting products, the penetration rate of global LED lighting is expected to reach 30% in 2015. UBS research shows that the demand for global LED chips for lighting applications is expected to increase significantly from 17% in 2011 to 54% in 2015. As the global production base of LED lighting products, China's output accounts for 80% of the world's production, which is the most beneficial.
The LED industry chain is generally divided into upstream LED chip manufacturing, midstream LED chip packaging and downstream LED chip application. Among them, the top-level LED chip manufacturing industry in the industry chain has a high barrier to entry: it requires large-scale capital investment and long-term technology accumulation. This has also led to a large-scale reduction in China's LED chip manufacturing companies since 2011. UBS expects that there are about 10 companies that can mass-produce LED chips in China.
From the perspective of growth rate, in 2010-2014, the LED chip industry's annual compound growth rate reached 32%, leading the LED packaging and application industry. UBS believes that with the rapid development of China's LED industry, LED chip companies are the most beneficial in the industry chain, mainly because the country is the most supportive, patent issues have been resolved, China's LED chip manufacturers have passed their own research and development and industry mergers and acquisitions, Gradually break the patent bottleneck of LED chips, product technology continues to improve, material costs are rapidly declining, and leading companies have the highest gross profit margin and ROE levels.
In terms of valuation, LED industry chain related companies market consensus estimates show that the market expects LED chip manufacturers to estimate the PE valuation level in 2015/16 is about 40 times and 28 times, respectively, 35 times higher than LED chip packaging companies and 25 Double, 54 times and 39 times lower than LED chip application companies.
A-share LED chip manufacturing company valuation
Among them, UBS is most optimistic about LED chip leading company Sanan Optoelectronics, giving a "buy" rating and a target price of 33.80 yuan, and optimistic about Huacan Optoelectronics and dry photo optoelectronics.
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