In the shadow of the global economic outlook and the uncertain transition of the mobile communication system, this year's semiconductor industry performance may be barely "blurred" with a growth rate of less than 5%; but the latest forecast report published by ICInsights, a market research organization, points out that 2012 The annual IC market growth rate will be fine-tuned to two figures. In the long run, if the industry undergoes a consolidation, it should help maintain moderate growth.
"Our view is that this year the semiconductor market will be flat, or up to 5% growth;" Bill McClean, president of ICInsights, said at the agency's annual meeting in Silicon Valley, USA. Earlier this year, when the 311 earthquake in Japan and the U.S. economy weakened, ICInsights will halve its forecast of the 10% growth rate of the chip industry this year; but McClean said: "If the global GDP growth rate this year can be reached At 3.8%, we have the opportunity to see that the growth rate of the wafer industry is better than the average sales growth rate of 7% in the overall system product market."
In spite of the recent gloom in the industry, McClean still believes: “The wafer market has a bright future. I have not seen any factor that will change the market's traditional annual growth rate of 8 to 9%.†Earlier this year, the market forecasted. The US’s GDP growth rate this year may have decreased from 4% previously thought to 1.7%, which also affected the forecast of the growth rate of the wafer industry. Although the US GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 2.85% in 2012, McClean said that if the US Congress fails to pass the salary With regard to the tax exemption and the unemployment benefit extension bill, I am afraid that this figure can only reach 2.22%.
Global GDP is expected to rebound back to a normal growth rate of 3.6% next year, mainly driven by the recovery in Japan and the United States, and the continued strong growth in emerging markets such as China; McClean pointed out that China has become the world’s largest PC buyer this year. It is also a big purchase of mobile phones thanks to the official incentive policies of the car. In 2010, it consumed 300 million mobile phones.
However, soaring crude oil prices are the greatest risks to GDP growth rates. Between 2002 and 2002, the compound annual growth rate of crude oil prices soared to 17%. This figure was only 3% between 1988 and 2002; McClean added that He pointed out: "We are afraid that we will not see global GDP reaching a 4% level in the next five years. The main reason is that we are stuck with crude oil prices."
Growth rates of various electronics industry sectors in 2011 Forecast of smart phones and tablet devices Inspur ICs Insights predicts that sales of global electronic system products are expected to maintain a normal growth rate of 6% in 2011, with a slight chance of progressing to 7% next year; Telecommunications products are the departments that lead the growth of this market. This year's growth rate is expected to reach 12%, followed by automotive products, with a growth rate of approximately 6%.
Mobile devices are an area with strong growth momentum. In addition to the increase in shipments of smart phones, the proportion of mobile phone shipments is also expanding. It is expected to reach 30% by the end of 2011; the average sales amount of smart phones is forecasted. This year reached 118 dollars, the figure was 107 dollars last year.
"If you haven't yet stepped into the smart phone industry, I'm afraid this time has already been eliminated by the mobile phone market." McClean pointed out that Nokia Nokia's mobile phone sales fell 14%, because too late to reach the smart phone market; with Time Taiwanese HTC's performance is doubled, because it is focused on the introduction of high-end smart phone products.
In the PC market segment, IC Insights predicts that the market will continue to grow slightly in the next two quarters. This year's growth rate for 2012 and 2012 will reach 3% and 5%, respectively. The growth momentum will mainly come from corporate buyers.
The current market's uncertainty about whether the rise of tablet devices will impact laptops is particularly high, and McClean believes that tablet devices: "It's still too new, and many people don't even know how it will work - This is really important for the semiconductor market."
He added that people seem to buy tablet computers instead of laptop upgrades or buy small netbooks this year, but whether this trend can continue is unknown: “You know if people stop buying PCs, Both are turning to purchase tablet devices, Intel Intel may be crazy, this will be a disaster for the company."
The DRAM memory capacity used by the tablet device is a quarter of notebooks, but it will consume more NAND flash memory; however ICInsights anticipates that if the tablet reaches a high volume shipment level forecast by the year 5, The 5 million units will increase to 176 million units in 2015, and the total sales of the chips used in the mobile devices will continue to rise.
DRAM devaluation drags down overall wafer price performance In terms of chip sales, IC Insights predicts that global IC sales in 2011 will be US$275 billion, and the average ASP of wafers will decline by 3%; global IC sales in 2012 are expected to grow by 10%. %, reaching a level of US$28.1 billion, while chip ASP can grow by 1%.
McClean said: "DRAM is the culprit that drove down the average wafer sales price for this year. If you exclude DRAM, this year's chip ASP performance will be flat." He predicts, including Elpida, Nanya Technology, ProMOS and Powerchip Powerchip etc. Memory manufacturers, I am afraid, can not keep up with other DRAM peers and raise an estimated US$5 billion in funding to build a new generation of fabs.
But the good news is that there aren't too many excess inventory in the current market access; except for tablet device suppliers RIM and Acer, their unsold products are estimated to have between 1 and 5 million units.
From 2008 to 2012, the number of wafer suppliers in the IC market decreased in each quarter. The observation that large companies can survive IC Insights also found that global sales of semiconductor capital equipment continued to fluctuate significantly, reaching a low level of US$25.7 billion in 2009. It is expected to triple in 2011 to 58.9 billion U.S. dollars; however, the agency predicts that the market will decline by 8% next year, and then it will show relatively moderate growth in the next three years, reaching a value of 72.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2015.
The sales of semiconductor capital equipment expected to emerge in 2015 will grow substantially, driven by spending on 18-inch fabs that are expected to start taking off during the year; "Intel and TSMC are both discussing the issue;" McClean said that in the short term : "We will see some excess capacity in wafer foundries and weak market demand, so it is expected that the foundry industry's capacity utilization rate will experience a certain degree of decline."
In 2011, the capital expenditure of the wafer-generation industry will reach US$18.6 billion, which was US$13.8 billion in the previous year; among them, the biggest spenders are Global Foundries. "TSMC stimulated that the foundry's capital expenditure this year is almost 100% of the sales amount; but next year they should also be the ones who cut off the most capital expenditures, because they really spend too much money." He believes that In the long term, the capital expenditure of foundries should be maintained at an average level of 9% annual growth rate to support the increase in wafer production volume and maintain the stability of wafer prices.
In other semiconductor factories, Intel’s 2011 capital expenditures will double: “They believe that this can win ARM in the mobile device field, so they continue to step on the accelerator.†McClean said that Samsung Samsung will cut capital expenditures for DRAM business. But it will continue to invest in flash memory. In the past two years, Samsung has invested US$20 billion in equipment procurement, which is the size of four US$5 billion fabs.
Japanese company Sony also continues to increase capital expenditures in a two-year plan that aims to become the leader of image sensors; but on the other hand, the company will also gradually move toward the “fab-light†business model. On the whole, Japanese semiconductor companies are spending less and less on fab equipment, but US semiconductor companies such as Intel are spending more.
The semiconductor industry's capital expenditure analysis McClean pointed out that the general trend of the wafer industry is consolidation: "When we enter the era of 18-inch wafers, the global IC market will be in the hands of about 10 manufacturers, they will not reduce the price competition, the chip prices can be maintained Long-term stability.†But this trend may hinder India’s plans to enter the wafer manufacturing industry: “The basic threshold is $5 billion, so the door is closed and there is no chance of opening.â€
"Our view is that this year the semiconductor market will be flat, or up to 5% growth;" Bill McClean, president of ICInsights, said at the agency's annual meeting in Silicon Valley, USA. Earlier this year, when the 311 earthquake in Japan and the U.S. economy weakened, ICInsights will halve its forecast of the 10% growth rate of the chip industry this year; but McClean said: "If the global GDP growth rate this year can be reached At 3.8%, we have the opportunity to see that the growth rate of the wafer industry is better than the average sales growth rate of 7% in the overall system product market."
In spite of the recent gloom in the industry, McClean still believes: “The wafer market has a bright future. I have not seen any factor that will change the market's traditional annual growth rate of 8 to 9%.†Earlier this year, the market forecasted. The US’s GDP growth rate this year may have decreased from 4% previously thought to 1.7%, which also affected the forecast of the growth rate of the wafer industry. Although the US GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 2.85% in 2012, McClean said that if the US Congress fails to pass the salary With regard to the tax exemption and the unemployment benefit extension bill, I am afraid that this figure can only reach 2.22%.
Global GDP is expected to rebound back to a normal growth rate of 3.6% next year, mainly driven by the recovery in Japan and the United States, and the continued strong growth in emerging markets such as China; McClean pointed out that China has become the world’s largest PC buyer this year. It is also a big purchase of mobile phones thanks to the official incentive policies of the car. In 2010, it consumed 300 million mobile phones.
However, soaring crude oil prices are the greatest risks to GDP growth rates. Between 2002 and 2002, the compound annual growth rate of crude oil prices soared to 17%. This figure was only 3% between 1988 and 2002; McClean added that He pointed out: "We are afraid that we will not see global GDP reaching a 4% level in the next five years. The main reason is that we are stuck with crude oil prices."
Growth rates of various electronics industry sectors in 2011 Forecast of smart phones and tablet devices Inspur ICs Insights predicts that sales of global electronic system products are expected to maintain a normal growth rate of 6% in 2011, with a slight chance of progressing to 7% next year; Telecommunications products are the departments that lead the growth of this market. This year's growth rate is expected to reach 12%, followed by automotive products, with a growth rate of approximately 6%.
Mobile devices are an area with strong growth momentum. In addition to the increase in shipments of smart phones, the proportion of mobile phone shipments is also expanding. It is expected to reach 30% by the end of 2011; the average sales amount of smart phones is forecasted. This year reached 118 dollars, the figure was 107 dollars last year.
"If you haven't yet stepped into the smart phone industry, I'm afraid this time has already been eliminated by the mobile phone market." McClean pointed out that Nokia Nokia's mobile phone sales fell 14%, because too late to reach the smart phone market; with Time Taiwanese HTC's performance is doubled, because it is focused on the introduction of high-end smart phone products.
In the PC market segment, IC Insights predicts that the market will continue to grow slightly in the next two quarters. This year's growth rate for 2012 and 2012 will reach 3% and 5%, respectively. The growth momentum will mainly come from corporate buyers.
The current market's uncertainty about whether the rise of tablet devices will impact laptops is particularly high, and McClean believes that tablet devices: "It's still too new, and many people don't even know how it will work - This is really important for the semiconductor market."
He added that people seem to buy tablet computers instead of laptop upgrades or buy small netbooks this year, but whether this trend can continue is unknown: “You know if people stop buying PCs, Both are turning to purchase tablet devices, Intel Intel may be crazy, this will be a disaster for the company."
The DRAM memory capacity used by the tablet device is a quarter of notebooks, but it will consume more NAND flash memory; however ICInsights anticipates that if the tablet reaches a high volume shipment level forecast by the year 5, The 5 million units will increase to 176 million units in 2015, and the total sales of the chips used in the mobile devices will continue to rise.
DRAM devaluation drags down overall wafer price performance In terms of chip sales, IC Insights predicts that global IC sales in 2011 will be US$275 billion, and the average ASP of wafers will decline by 3%; global IC sales in 2012 are expected to grow by 10%. %, reaching a level of US$28.1 billion, while chip ASP can grow by 1%.
McClean said: "DRAM is the culprit that drove down the average wafer sales price for this year. If you exclude DRAM, this year's chip ASP performance will be flat." He predicts, including Elpida, Nanya Technology, ProMOS and Powerchip Powerchip etc. Memory manufacturers, I am afraid, can not keep up with other DRAM peers and raise an estimated US$5 billion in funding to build a new generation of fabs.
But the good news is that there aren't too many excess inventory in the current market access; except for tablet device suppliers RIM and Acer, their unsold products are estimated to have between 1 and 5 million units.
From 2008 to 2012, the number of wafer suppliers in the IC market decreased in each quarter. The observation that large companies can survive IC Insights also found that global sales of semiconductor capital equipment continued to fluctuate significantly, reaching a low level of US$25.7 billion in 2009. It is expected to triple in 2011 to 58.9 billion U.S. dollars; however, the agency predicts that the market will decline by 8% next year, and then it will show relatively moderate growth in the next three years, reaching a value of 72.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2015.
The sales of semiconductor capital equipment expected to emerge in 2015 will grow substantially, driven by spending on 18-inch fabs that are expected to start taking off during the year; "Intel and TSMC are both discussing the issue;" McClean said that in the short term : "We will see some excess capacity in wafer foundries and weak market demand, so it is expected that the foundry industry's capacity utilization rate will experience a certain degree of decline."
In 2011, the capital expenditure of the wafer-generation industry will reach US$18.6 billion, which was US$13.8 billion in the previous year; among them, the biggest spenders are Global Foundries. "TSMC stimulated that the foundry's capital expenditure this year is almost 100% of the sales amount; but next year they should also be the ones who cut off the most capital expenditures, because they really spend too much money." He believes that In the long term, the capital expenditure of foundries should be maintained at an average level of 9% annual growth rate to support the increase in wafer production volume and maintain the stability of wafer prices.
In other semiconductor factories, Intel’s 2011 capital expenditures will double: “They believe that this can win ARM in the mobile device field, so they continue to step on the accelerator.†McClean said that Samsung Samsung will cut capital expenditures for DRAM business. But it will continue to invest in flash memory. In the past two years, Samsung has invested US$20 billion in equipment procurement, which is the size of four US$5 billion fabs.
Japanese company Sony also continues to increase capital expenditures in a two-year plan that aims to become the leader of image sensors; but on the other hand, the company will also gradually move toward the “fab-light†business model. On the whole, Japanese semiconductor companies are spending less and less on fab equipment, but US semiconductor companies such as Intel are spending more.
The semiconductor industry's capital expenditure analysis McClean pointed out that the general trend of the wafer industry is consolidation: "When we enter the era of 18-inch wafers, the global IC market will be in the hands of about 10 manufacturers, they will not reduce the price competition, the chip prices can be maintained Long-term stability.†But this trend may hinder India’s plans to enter the wafer manufacturing industry: “The basic threshold is $5 billion, so the door is closed and there is no chance of opening.â€
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