“Drought intensified in the southwestern region, and the power supply in the five southern provinces and regions has been in full emergency.†The China Southern Power Grid Corporation issued a report on the 31st afternoon that the power gap in the entire network has reached nearly 15%, and the worst power shortages in the five southern provinces have continued to increase in five years. .
Analysis of the causes of the incident In the near future, the power shortage in the southwestern region has become increasingly fierce. The gap in the South China Power Grid has reached the most severe state in five years, and the power supply in the five provinces covering Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hainan is seriously in short supply. The reasons for the power shortage are as follows:
(1) Social power consumption rises, power demand is booming The economy in the south has developed rapidly. As a result of this, coupled with hot weather, the increase in electricity consumption is fierce. According to relevant sources, the growth rate of electricity demand for China Southern Power Grid has now surpassed 10%.
(2) Drought and water shortages. Hydroelectricity is severely constrained by low rainfall and drought in the southwest, and the water level is somewhat dry, resulting in limited supply of hydropower. According to relevant sources, China Southern Power Grid has 56 million kilowatts of hydropower installed capacity, and currently hydropower can only contribute 20 million kilowatts. Since August, the water inflow from the Hongshui River and the Wujiang River Basin has been nearly 90% and 80%, respectively. At present, the storage value of the two large watersheds is 2.5 billion kwh, which is a year-on-year decrease of 85%.
(3) Power plants lack coal, and the supply of thermal power is insufficient Because of the shortage of water and electricity, the thermal power load is further increased. At present, the power supply in the southwestern region mainly relies on thermal power enterprises, and the frequent shutdown of the power plant due to lack of coal has a great impact on the power supply. The shortage of power coal is mainly due to the following aspects:
1. The decline of coal quality: The poor coal quality is also one of the reasons for the lack of thermal power output, which reduces the power generation capacity of thermal power plants to some extent.
2. Resources are scarce: There are relatively few coal resources in the southwestern part of the country, and the main coal-producing provinces in Guizhou have coal resources and their production is limited. In addition, their restrictions on Sinotrans policies have led to tight supply of coal in the province and surrounding areas.
3. Inadequate transport capacity: transport problems have always been the bottleneck of coal circulation that is difficult to solve. The rise in freight rates has exacerbated the geographical limitations of coal circulation.
4. Coal and Electricity Contradictions: In addition to coal supply shortages, due to thermal power losses caused by coal and electricity contradictions, some companies are not actively purchasing coal is also one of the reasons for the lack of electricity supply, thermal power is insufficient, in the original situation of hydropower is even worse. .
The incident's shortage of power supply to the coal market has led to a strong demand for coal, which has formed a certain support for coal prices. Currently, coal prices have been at a high level and will remain stable in the short term. There is no callback pressure yet. Due to the long-standing coal and electricity contradictions The state's control over the price of coal is also more stringent, and there may be little volatility in coal prices.
Analysis of the causes of the incident In the near future, the power shortage in the southwestern region has become increasingly fierce. The gap in the South China Power Grid has reached the most severe state in five years, and the power supply in the five provinces covering Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hainan is seriously in short supply. The reasons for the power shortage are as follows:
(1) Social power consumption rises, power demand is booming The economy in the south has developed rapidly. As a result of this, coupled with hot weather, the increase in electricity consumption is fierce. According to relevant sources, the growth rate of electricity demand for China Southern Power Grid has now surpassed 10%.
(2) Drought and water shortages. Hydroelectricity is severely constrained by low rainfall and drought in the southwest, and the water level is somewhat dry, resulting in limited supply of hydropower. According to relevant sources, China Southern Power Grid has 56 million kilowatts of hydropower installed capacity, and currently hydropower can only contribute 20 million kilowatts. Since August, the water inflow from the Hongshui River and the Wujiang River Basin has been nearly 90% and 80%, respectively. At present, the storage value of the two large watersheds is 2.5 billion kwh, which is a year-on-year decrease of 85%.
(3) Power plants lack coal, and the supply of thermal power is insufficient Because of the shortage of water and electricity, the thermal power load is further increased. At present, the power supply in the southwestern region mainly relies on thermal power enterprises, and the frequent shutdown of the power plant due to lack of coal has a great impact on the power supply. The shortage of power coal is mainly due to the following aspects:
1. The decline of coal quality: The poor coal quality is also one of the reasons for the lack of thermal power output, which reduces the power generation capacity of thermal power plants to some extent.
2. Resources are scarce: There are relatively few coal resources in the southwestern part of the country, and the main coal-producing provinces in Guizhou have coal resources and their production is limited. In addition, their restrictions on Sinotrans policies have led to tight supply of coal in the province and surrounding areas.
3. Inadequate transport capacity: transport problems have always been the bottleneck of coal circulation that is difficult to solve. The rise in freight rates has exacerbated the geographical limitations of coal circulation.
4. Coal and Electricity Contradictions: In addition to coal supply shortages, due to thermal power losses caused by coal and electricity contradictions, some companies are not actively purchasing coal is also one of the reasons for the lack of electricity supply, thermal power is insufficient, in the original situation of hydropower is even worse. .
The incident's shortage of power supply to the coal market has led to a strong demand for coal, which has formed a certain support for coal prices. Currently, coal prices have been at a high level and will remain stable in the short term. There is no callback pressure yet. Due to the long-standing coal and electricity contradictions The state's control over the price of coal is also more stringent, and there may be little volatility in coal prices.
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