In March of this year, Deutsche Bank (hereinafter referred to as "Deutsche Bank") released the latest VR report, taking Oculus, HTC Vive, PS VR and other mainstream VR products as examples to understand the opportunities and challenges faced by VR products.
Abstract: The arrival of the VR era
In the face of the largest VR product in history, Deutsche Bank observed some core trends:
Trend 1: Desktop-based VR product bookings are booming and market demand exceeds expectations.
Trend 2: Mobile VR products are mainly divided into three categories:
The first category: lightweight mobile VR, such as Google Cardboard.
The second category: smartphone-based VR, such as Samsung Gear VR.
The third category: stand-alone VR, built-in CPU / GPU and so on.
Among them, the sales of mobile VR in 2017 may reach 50 million.
Trend 3: The VR industry is shifting to “completely present†in terms of hardware. In the next few years, mobile VR will overtake desktop VR, but the key to popularization is whether the content is attractive.
All in all, the pace of innovation in the VR field makes it easy to think of the smartphone market around 2007. The VR market will take several years to form, but its potential is huge.
Gear VR will break out in 2016
Deutsche Bank expects that by the end of 2016, Oculus will reach 1 million units, HTC Vive will reach 1 million units, Sony PS VR will reach 2.5 million units, and mobile VR users will reach 18 million units.
In view of the fact that the number of PS4s will reach 50 million at the end of this year, and the success of Sony's new products, it is expected that PS VR sales will be the highest this year.
In the long run, mobile VR products will have a broader market space with lower cost and increasing user experience. This year, Samsung Gear VR sales are expected to exceed 10 million units, compared with 250,000 units last year, Samsung will also use this product to consolidate its leading position in the mobile VR market. It is estimated that in 2017, sales of mobile VR products will reach 50 million units.
The challenge of pursuing "complete presence"
Although Deutsche Bank remains optimistic about the VR market, this year the VR industry still faces a series of challenges.
"Complete presence" is to let VR users feel that they are completely in the VR world. But currently, there are not a few VR platforms that can do this.
For the time being, with the motion controller and the Lighthouse tracking system, HTC Vive offers the closest "full presence" experience. With the Oculus Touch handle, the Oculus Rift will also be similar to the HTC Vive, but the Touch handle will be available in the second half of this year.
There are many obstacles to overcome in mobile VR, but in the next few years it will also be equipped with a position tracking system, motion controller and higher frame rate. Most importantly, developing a "completely present" experience requires an appropriate storyline, and so far, few VR vendors have been able to overcome this difficulty.
The development of mobile VR
A trend in mobile VR is fragmentation.
So far, the performance of the Samsung Gear VR has exceeded expectations, but it has not yet reached its optimal state in terms of frame rate, battery life and other aspects. As a result, stand-alone VR products have emerged, and these products usually have hardware such as CPU and GPU. In addition, Deutsche Bank expects Google and Apple to launch mobile VR this year and for some time to come, and promote the development of the market.
To be successful, a mobile VR ecosystem requires the following:
Distribution: a large user base and a vibrant app store;
Developer: Cultivate a healthy market where developers can monetize by selling software;
API and SDK: There are plenty of APIs and SDKs to ensure a VR experience.
Facebook: will lead PC and mobile VR
Oculus recently hinted that Oculus Rift's bookings far exceed its issued developer kit (300,000 units), which means Deutsche Bank's expectations (1 million Oculus Rift sold in 2016) are reasonable. Deutsche Bank believes that some gamers may choose HTC Vive because it comes with action controllers and Steam VR content. But Deutsche Bank believes that Oculus Rift will have a larger user base and developer community. The Oculus app store uses an "audit" mode instead of an "open" mode.
In the early days of VR development, this model was more appropriate. Oculus Rift's hardware revenue this year will reach $600 million (with a gross margin of 0), while the app store's net revenue will reach $35 million.
Google: Detailed VR strategy announced at I/O conference
Google is actively investing in the VR market, and at the I/O conference in May this year, Google will release a further VR strategy. In the VR market, Google is ready to go, including the Cardboard SDK, developers, 5 million users, YouTube 360 ​​and 3D image drawing tool TIlt Brush, and refusing to put its main applications in the Oculus app store.
Deutsche Bank believes that future Android VR (no matter how Google names it) will focus on the mid- to high-end market of mobile VR products, namely mobile-based VR and stand-alone VR, while Cardboard continues to focus on the lightweight mobile VR market.
In addition, Google is also targeting the augmented reality (AR) market. Last year, Lenovo launched the Project Tango project, and its first smartphone reference will be released in the middle of this year.
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