The post-robot market refers to a series of markets such as maintenance after robot sales, second-hand robot trading and remanufacturing, robot finance and leasing. The Chinese robot market is still in its infancy, and the opportunities are limitless. This paper analyzes the possible opportunities in the Chinese robotic aftermarket and speculates on several possible business models with reference to other industry aftermarkets.
China's robotic aftermarket is in its infancy
China's robot industry is in the stage of shifting capacity expansion to technological breakthroughs, and the aftermarket has not yet formed.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, China's industrial robots are shifting from the downstream to the middle and upper reaches. The industrial robot industry chain is mainly divided into three levels: upstream core components, midstream equipment manufacturers, and robotic local and downstream system integrators. The core components such as reducers upstream of the industrial robot industry chain in China restrict the cost of domestic robots. The ontology technology of the midstream of the industrial chain is monopolized by foreign leading enterprises. The domestic robot enterprises are mostly system integrators downstream of the industrial chain, 95% of them. Enterprises gather profits in downstream links. At present, the focus of the domestic industrial robot industry and the country's policy support direction are based on technological breakthroughs, to break the foreign monopoly as the development goal, and to expand production capacity for the market where space is still very large. According to the statistics of IFR (International Federation of Robotics), the development speed of industrial robots in China is unprecedented. From 2010 to 2014, the average annual compound growth rate of market scale reached 40%. It is estimated that by 2018, the number of multi-purpose industrial robots will reach 610,000. set. This possession will be twice the sum of the three North American countries (320,000 sets); twice that of Japan (290,000 sets); twice that of South Korea (280,000 sets); three times that of Germany (220,000 sets); all of Europe 1.2 times (52 million sets).
The huge amount of ownership and increments will lead to a new market – the robotic aftermarket, which is a series of markets around the sale and maintenance of robots, second-hand robot trading and remanufacturing, robot finance and leasing.
From the user's point of view, Industry 4.0 allows companies to pay more attention to the maintenance and rapid repair of complete sets of industrial equipment.
Industry 4.0 is a fourth industrial revolution based on the Information Physics Fusion (CPS) system, marked by a highly digital, networked, and machined organization. Its goal is to integrate intelligent machines, storage systems and production facilities through information physics systems. The ability to automatically exchange information, trigger actions and controls independently of each other, and fundamentally improve industrial processes including manufacturing, engineering, material use, supply chain and lifecycle management. Its two themes "smart factory" and "smart production" are inseparable from industrial robots, and labor-intensive manual production will be gradually replaced. The consequent control points are the reliability and quick maintainability of the robot. Reliability can be guaranteed by the development, production, installation and maintenance of robots, and can be quickly maintained, which may lead to the emergence of corresponding service organizations. The automobile is directly sold from the factory and directly maintained, and it is transformed into factory production, 4S shop and repair shop maintenance. The main reason is that the market scale is huge and the manufacturer's service capacity is limited. In order to meet the market demand, professional maintenance service organizations have emerged. The same is true for the robot repair service market. When the market growth rate leads the system integrator's service capability growth rate, professional service organizations will be born.
Corporate cash flow is generally tight, bringing potential business opportunities in the financial industry leasing and second-hand trading market
In the era of Industry 4.0, robots replaced labor. In addition to improving flexibility and increasing production resource utilization, another important value was to reduce production costs. When enterprises consider investing in robot production lines, they must consider the comparison with labor production costs. Even if the products produced only by robots are put into production lines, enterprises will still hope that one-time investment will not put too much pressure on cash flow, so it will inevitably produce emerging financial leasing market and second-hand robot trading market similar to engineering equipment. Financing leasing can solve the problem of buying new robots, and second-hand robot trading will provide SMEs with a path to cheap robot production.
Automotive and engineering equipment industry, extending from manufacturing to service to promote market opportunities
(1) China's automobile aftermarket is in full swing
As a product, the automobile has experienced the processes of production, sales, use, scrapping, dismantling and recycling. From the user's point of view, there are three markets involved, namely the new car market (new car sales) and the aftermarket (maintenance maintenance, Used car transactions, car rentals, etc.) and the financial services market that runs through the new car market and the aftermarket.
In the past ten years, China's auto industry has developed at a high speed, and the number of car ownership has steadily increased. In 2015, it has exceeded 150 million vehicles. In recent years, a number of policies have been introduced intensively, and the obstacles to the aftermarket of the automobile have gradually been eliminated. The automobile aftermarket has formed a huge market scale. It is estimated that by 2020, the scale of the auto finance market in the post-market will reach 1.7 trillion yuan, a compound growth rate of 19%; the maintenance and repair market will also reach 1.7 trillion yuan, a compound growth rate of 17%; the scale of used car trading market It will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 22%; the car rental market is relatively small at around 150 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 26%.
The huge market demand has attracted all the merchants to enter the market, and the competition in the aftermarket has become more and more hot.
In the field of auto finance, traditional banks, automakers, and large sales groups and insurance companies have joined the competition. In the field of used car trading, listed companies such as Huge Group, Yaxia Automobile, and Great Eastern have taken a certain market share, and regional used car trading centers have already reached a certain scale. In terms of vehicle maintenance and maintenance, listed companies such as Jingu, Fengshen, and Xinzhong entered the company. In the field of car rental, Shenzhou renting a car and renting a car have formed a considerable market scale. Didi Uber and Yidao vehicles are also undergoing fierce competition.
In addition, Internet companies that carry large amounts of money have also had a violent impact on the automotive aftermarket. This kind of impact is not only reflected in the capital, but also in the business model. Take the car maintenance industry as an example. From January to May 2015, there were ten million dollars in financing. The T-car financing for the Tigers has nearly 100 million US dollars. The entry of Internet companies has made the post-market disputes even more widespread.
Auto finance market participants, both traditional banks (China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank), and financial services institutions (Volkswagen Finance, General Motors Finance), insurance companies (People's Insurance, Ping An Insurance) Infiltrate the car insurance. The second-hand car market participants include traditional used car dealers (Giant Group, Yaxia Automobile, Great Eastern) and emerging Internet platforms (People's Car, Youxin, and Wang Wang). The car rental market is highly competitive with the addition of Internet platforms such as Didi Uber and Easy Road.
(2) The market is starting after the engineering equipment
Throughout the mature markets at home and abroad, in addition to product sales profits, the post-market service industry has become an important source of income for enterprises. This is the case with cars and engineering equipment. In recent years, with the decrease in the profit of engineering equipment sales, in the downturn of the industry, manufacturers and agents have begun to take a strategic vision to the aftermarket and have tried water. The market for the five major components of services (repair and maintenance), accessories, leasing, second mobile phones and remanufacturing is gaining momentum.
In January this year, the Construction Machinery Used Equipment Industry Alliance was officially opened in Changsha Economic Development Zone. The CTEC International Parts Trading Center was announced to start construction. The second-hand equipment industry alliance achieved initial development; Xugong Group and Zhejiang Dingli launched engineering equipment maintenance and remanufacturing business; Lianzhongke and Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Zhuhai to closely link the high-end products of Zoomlion with Huafa Group's financial leasing services, business services and construction machinery equipment end users, and fully utilize the inter-industry Mutual promotion, thus creating a new platform for integration of production and integration with potential for listing.
The engineering and equipment after the start of the market is still facing many problems.
1. The current SMEs' after-sales service system is imperfect, which makes the enterprise users and after-sales service have a certain disconnect, and the market development is not sufficient.
2. Lack of scale advantage: There are many enterprises engaged in equipment manufacturing industry, and their development is often independent. The advantages of scale procurement and coverage of service centers are difficult to play, and the overall cost is high.
3. Limited service level: Users' demand for personalized products is becoming more and more intense. The existing services are limited to provide convenience for users, and the demand for more professional and refined services is strong.
(3) China's equipment manufacturing industry is facing a transition from manufacturing to service extension
The equipment manufacturing industry is highly correlated with China's fixed asset investment. In recent years, under the influence of a large amount of investment, China's engineering equipment manufacturing industry has a large excess capacity, and the income growth rate is close to zero. The operating income of equipment manufacturing enterprises has continued to decline, although this year's equipment manufacturing industry The decline in revenue stopped, but the overall surplus situation in the industry has not improved.
Compared with the traditional industry, the high-end equipment manufacturing industry has performed better. Under the guidance of the “Made in China 2025†10-year action plan, industry-leading enterprises are gradually getting rid of the imitation and dependence on foreign advanced engineering equipment, accelerating the ontology and zero. Improvement in the level of component development and the manufacture of high-end equipment. China's engineering manufacturing industry is realizing, from production capacity to technology to service.
Future Chinese robotic post-market business model
Regional chained robots and equipment maintenance and repair institutions
From the perspective of industrial clusters, industrial enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other regions have the characteristics of industrial clustering, and the demand for industrial robots by similar enterprises is similar. For the maintenance organization of robots and complete sets of equipment, it can form a regional chain, provide services for a certain type of robot equipment, and can also serve a variety of robots of a certain type of enterprise, forming a scale and specialization advantage. The 4S shop of this type of robot will face the domestic market demand of 100 billion yuan in the future.
Used robots and related equipment trading platforms and financial services institutions in O2O mode
With the rise of the second-hand robot market, trading platforms for used robots and related equipment in the O2O model will appear. Second-hand robot sellers, buyers, remanufacturers, component manufacturers, and maintenance service organizations will be able to pass the online Platform to achieve information release, business communication, direct transactions and other activities. At the same time, financial service platforms like Alipay will also appear, providing payment, guarantee, financing and other services for second-hand robot trading.
Professional branded robot operation training and optimization program design consulting agency
In addition to maintenance services for robotic bodies, design consultancies that provide training and optimization solutions for the use and optimization of robots are also produced. The same equipment, the use and operation of people who receive the appropriate training, will bring different output. The professional operator training organization will launch customized training for the company's robots to support the early development of robot performance. The optimization plan design consultancy will be based on the more reasonable program design and machine layout of the company's production line. When companies switch to different products, they may need to re-adjust the production line and program design. The original manufacturer or integrator may take a long time or a high cost to achieve, but the enterprise needs to solve this problem quickly and at low cost. The market space for professional consulting agencies comes from this.
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