In "the worst quarter in history", the curved TV market was very eye-catching. According to data from China Excel, the total number of omni-channel surface TVs in the first quarter of 2017 was 355 models, which exceeded the sum of sales of ultra-thin, split-body, and borderless TVs. The retail volume of omni-channel surface TVs increased by 123.2% year-on-year. The penetration rate of TV retail volume on the lower surface reaches 11.1%.
Interestingly, the mainstream color TV manufacturers have started to “play it lighter†on curved TVs this year. In addition to Samsung, they rarely mention the surface concept in the new spring conference. Changhong, the main manufacturer of curved TVs, did not even have new surface TVs this year. .
On the one hand is the “hot†market, while the other is the “coolness†of the company. What is behind it? An interviewee at Huaxing Optoelectronics Research Center clarified their research on curved TV market: “From the current point of view, curved TV market The demand has not risen significantly.†That is to say, the heat seen on the numbers may actually be “virtual fireâ€.
Rising or falling in volume is the truth
If you want to find out the actual situation behind the fiery curved surface TV, you must open the transcript of the curved TV market in the first quarter of 2017. The following table shows the sales share and sales price of the mainstream size segment of domestic curved TV market in the first quarter of 2016 and 2017.
Domestic Curved TV Market in 2016 and First Quarter of 2017
Main size distribution (sales share) and selling price
Source: Zhong Yikang
From the comparison data of this table, it can be found that in addition to 50 inches, the first quarter of 2017, the surface TV prices generally declined, including 55 inches and 65 inches curved TV sales last year dropped by 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan. According to data from Yikang, the average price of domestic curved TVs dropped from 8,641 yuan in the first quarter of last year to 5,839 yuan in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%.
Therefore, in the first quarter of 2017, the share of retail volume of mainstream size curved surface TVs did not rise due to price cuts, but instead it declined.
In addition, some interesting phenomena have also appeared in the above table.
In the first quarter of 2017, the retail share of curved TVs in the 50-inch segment and below showed a slight increase. Among them, 48-inch curved TVs showed the most significant increase, which was 6.2 percentage points higher than last year. Some models even became the best-selling products. 50 inch curved TV prices have even risen.
Through the analysis of the above data, it can be seen that there are two major factors in the growth of curved TV sales in the first quarter of 2017. The first factor is that due to the price drop, the purchase threshold is lowered; the second factor is to rely on the increase in sales volume in the 50-inch and below segment. However, for the latter reason, sales personnel such as Hisense Electric and Konka, who were interviewed by reporters of China Electronics News, pointed out that in reality, users' acceptance of medium and small-sized curved surface televisions is not high.
Upstream supply
In the first quarter of 2017, the sales volume of curved TVs increased. In addition to the factors of price decline, why did the sales volume of 50-inch and lower segments increase?
The reason for the general drop in the price of surface TVs is obvious. The main reason is that the increase in technology has caused the production cost of curved panels to decline. Quzhi Consultation Report pointed out that the spread of flat panel front panel gradually narrowed, with the expansion of scale and production capacity, manufacturers continue to expand the promotion of sharing open cells, take a more aggressive pricing strategy, and gradually reduce the spread with the flat panel, and even promising Realize the same surface price as the flat panel and promote the surface panel's permeability.
But at the same price cuts, the retail share of curved TVs in the 50-inch segment and below increased, while the share of 55-inch and 65-inch curved TV retail sales fell.
A detailed analysis of the increase in the retail share of TVs with 50-inch and below segments will reveal that the 48-inch curved TV is the main force for the rise, followed by the 49-inch curved TV. Behind this is a reason known to the industry: Samsung discontinued production of 48-inch curved panels, while the 8.5-generation production line is converting 49-inch panels, and Huaxing Optoelectronics is planning to provide 49-inch curved panels. Ovi cloud network analyst Cui Jilong explained that from 46 inches to 48 inches, and now 49 inches, this is the result of continuous improvement of the 8.5 generation production line. Since LG's 8.5-generation line produced 49-inch panels, the other 8.5-generation lines have followed, because the 8.5-generation wire-cut 8 is the largest 49-inch. Although this has certain technical difficulties, the current major manufacturers have crossed this technical threshold.
Therefore, the increase in the share of 48-inch curved TV retail sales can only be a flash in the pan, and it can explain why there are a large number of unknown TV manufacturers launching 48-inch curved TVs.
The 50-inch curved TV can still maintain a slight increase in the retail volume share price increase, may be due to only AU Optronics 50-inch curved panel supplier, the downstream machine manufacturers in order to obtain differentiation in size, even in the panel In the case of price increases, the size of the product will also be selected, but the retail share of 50-inch curved TV is small.
If there is a “special reason†for the upstream supply of the above-mentioned size segments, the decline of the 55-inch and 65-inch curved TVs will reflect the overall situation more. First, it will be affected by the overall market, because the Chinese color TV market will suffer in the first quarter of 2017. The "worst first quarter in history"; the second is the shift in the focus of the company's marketing. The concept of curved television has been in its fifth year. The concept is too old. Manufacturers need new concepts to promote market growth.
Cui Jilong told the "China Electronics News" reporter that the quantum dot camp led by Samsung launched the concept of quantum dots, they will focus on the concept of quantum dots in the promotion, if Samsung pushes the concept of surface, but also push the concept of quantum dots, consumers The attention will be diluted. So the sound of curved television this year began to be weakened. For the same reason, in the spring 2017 new product launch conference of major mainstream manufacturers, there were few curved televisions, and even the TCL, which had previously mainly promoted curved televisions, seldom mentioned curved television at the conference.
The fate can't escape
In fact, curved TV was controversial from its birth, and LG, which had scraped surface winds together with Samsung, weakened the concept of the surface very early. Even some color TV manufacturers do not approve the development prospects of curved TVs from the beginning and do not push curved TVs. Liu Weizhi, president of Skyworth Group's color TV division, once shelled curved LCD TVs as a retrogression in color TV technology, and he believes that curved TVs are difficult to become a big market. Shigeaki Mizushima, Sharp’s former chief technology officer and executive vice president, also stated: “Not that we can't make a curved TV. We can do it if we want to do it, but what is the value of the surface?†He said at the time that Sharp would not consider Do a curved TV and avoid this competitive trend.
IHS has not been optimistic about the market potential of curved TVs since it had curved TVs. An IHS report at the beginning of this year predicted that the global share of surface TV shipments will increase from 3.9% in 2016 to 5.0% in 2017, reaching a peak, but the share of shipments will decline year after year after 2018, and will drop to 2020. 3.7%.
Zhang Bing, Director of China Market Research at IHS DisplaySearch, said in an interview with China Electronics News that the surface is a design concept or fashion concept. Some people find it very good, but the curved surface TV does not bring practical value to the user. It's just like color. Champagne is popular sometimes, sometimes it's popular in black, and sometimes it's popular in blue. Fashion and popular things go faster and faster. So from a market perspective, he believes that curved television will reach its peak in 2017 or the first half of 2018.
According to Liang Jiang, regional training manager of Konka Multimedia Division, who has been researching consumer psychology, this year, curved TV will reach its peak, and the surface TV will drop sharply next year. Because curved television is a transitional product, the ultimate direction of television development is ultra-lightweight. Taking OLED TVs as an example, the main manufacturers of OLED TVs now do not produce curved TVs. The vast majority are straight TVs, and they are developing in the direction of wallpaper TVs, and are only two or three millimeters thick.
There are also industry insiders pointed out that in the short term, curved TV in 2017 and 2018 in the domestic market there is room for growth, sales is expected to account for about 10% to 14%. In the long run, curved TVs will gradually fade out of the market, just like 3D TVs.
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